Pride and Progress in the first half of 2024
Historic gains for LGBT rights, warning signs on the horizon
We’re at the midpoint of 2024, and it’s become a regular tradition of mine to take this opportunity to look back on the progress we’ve made this year and also project what might come in the next six months. So let’s dive in.
Equal Marriage
🇬🇷 🇱🇮 🇹🇭 We’ve had a pretty successful year on same-sex marriage so far, with Greece, Liechtenstein, and Thailand all legalizing same-sex marriage and adoption rights (though adoption was already legal in Liechtenstein).
🇨🇿 Unfortunately, activists were unable to convince legislators in Czechia to pass same-sex marriage, though they did get expanded partnerships that include stepchild adoption.
🇦🇼 🇨🇼 🇸🇽 Looking ahead, we have aa long-expected ruling on same-sex marriage rights in Aruba and Curacao coming on July 12. If the ruling goes in our favor, I would expect Sint Maarten, the only other part of the Netherlands without equal marriage, to legalize it soon after.
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🇻🇬 There is a same-sex marriage case pending in the UK Virgin Islands, but we have no idea when that court will rule.
🇯🇵 🇰🇷 There is an ongoing series of cases in Japan seeking same-sex marriage rights, but it’s not clear when these will reach the Supreme Court, or how it would rule. There is also a case being heard at the Supreme Court of South Korea challenging access to national insurance for same-sex couples.
🇺🇸 Voters in the US states of California, Colorado, and Hawaii will weigh in on referendums to remove anti-same-sex marriage language from their constitutions in November.
🇲🇽 A significant set back happened in Mexico’s Baja California Sur state, where the governor vetoed a two-year-old bill that legalized same-sex couple adoption, ordering it to be reconsidered. It has not yet gotten a new vote. It’s possible that with local and national elections out of the way, we’ll see some states codifying same-sex marriage and adoption rights where they haven’t yet been passed into law, but most of the holdout states are governed by conservative parties that have been hostile to LGBT rights.
Other than that, there aren’t currently any legislative projects for equal marriage that stand a good chance of passing. But check out the section below on upcoming elections for more on this
Civil Unions
Given that they’re already a compromise position for LGBT people who want full equality, it’s been frustrating that we haven’t managed to get civil unions passed in any new jurisdictions this year.
🇵🇱 That may change this month, and Poland’s government has announced it has reached a compromise on passing a civil union bill – the compromise means no adoption rights (not even stepchild adoption), no common surname, and no ceremony at the registry office. Still, better than nothing.
🇱🇹 Potential buzz around Lithuania finally passing its stalled civil union bill heated up this week, as the left bloc threatened to veto the country’s nomination for EU commissioner unless the conservative bloc backs the bill. It’s possible that a solution gets announced in the coming weeks, but it seems more likely to me that the issue is held over until after October elections.
🇽🇰 And Kosovo’s government once again seems committed to passing a Civil Code that includes civil unions, but they keep pushing the bill down the road.
Decriminalizing Gay
🇩🇲 🇳🇦 We won two major legal victories this year, getting gay sex decriminalized in Dominica and Namibia.
In the latter case, parliament is caught up in an anti-LGBT fervor that started with last year’s ruling ordering the government to recognize foreign same-sex marriages. They passed a draconian anti-LGBT bill that has stalled as the previous and current president have both been reluctant to either sign or veto it.
🇻🇨 We also got a shocking loss in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, where the local court ruled that its sodomy law is constitutional. This wasn’t part of the coordinated cases in the Caribbean that were filed by ECADE, and I haven’t heard anything about an appeal.
🇱🇨 🇬🇩 Looking ahead, we’re still waiting for verdicts in sodomy decriminalization cases from St. Lucia and Grenada which could come at any moment.
🇬🇭 🇲🇼 🇰🇪 🇹🇳 There are also ongoing cases in Ghana, Malawi, Tunisia, and Kenya. The courts in the Ghana case are expected to rule July 27.
🇱🇰 And there is a decriminalization bill before the Sri Lanka parliament, but it’s not clear if it has any prospect of actually advancing.
🇺🇸 A sodomy decriminalization bill is pending in Massachusetts, but it looks like it may just die before the end of the session this month.
Criminalizing LGBT activism
🇬🇭 🇬🇪 Draconian anti-LGBT bills are spreading, unfortunately. Earlier this year, Ghana passed an anti-LGBT bill which is currently being challenged in the courts. And the government of Georgia has introduced an anti-LGBT bill that it hopes to pass before October elections.
Conversion therapy bans
🇲🇽 Mexico finally passed a nationwide ban on conversion therapy, as did the state of Guerrero.
🇦🇺 It’s also been banned in the state of New South Wales, Australia.
A rather confusing edict went out either banning conversion therapy or endorsing it in Peru earlier this year. I’m not sure I ever got complete clarity on what happened there.
🇨🇭 Switzerland is working on a conversion therapy ban, but with the slowness of their legislative process I wouldn’t expect it to be done before sometime around 2027.
Hate Crimes
🇿🇦 South Africa passed an LGBT-inclusive hate crimes bill this year.
🇺🇸 Meanwhile, in the States
We’ve already talked about how voters will weigh in on same-sex marriage in November in three states. In Maryland and New York, they’ll get to weigh in on LGBT-inclusive anti-discrimination amendments (state Dems couldn’t agree to put it on the ballot in Minnesota). Abortion will also be on the ballot in up to ten states.
Lawmakers in Michigan and Minnesota passed bans on the gay panic defense, while Michigan passed a ban on hate-motivated vandalism but doesn’t seem able to agree on a general hate crime statute.
Anti-trans laws continued to pile up in red states, particularly New Hampshire, Louisiana, Utah, and Ohio. There’ s been a fair degree of successful pushback on these cases through the courts, but the bad news is they’re likely to end up at the Supreme Court, which is proving to be extremely right-wing with each new decision.
International Elections
It’s been a wild year of elections.
🇹🇼 Progressive governments (of a sort) won reelection in Taiwan and Mexico, which should preserve recent gains in those countries for a while.
🇪🇺 EU parliamentary elections were dominated by the far-right parties, but so far seem shut out of governing, as the centrist and moderate groups seem to have cobbled together a working majority.
🇫🇷 France called snap elections last month, and yesterday’s first round saw the far-right National Rally dominate. Next week, we’ll find out where parliament sits after runoffs, but the most likely result is a period of gridlock until the next election.
🇮🇷 Iran also had its first round of presidential elections over the weekend, in which a reformist candidate won the most votes. The second round is later this week, but regardless of who wins, I wouldn’t expect much change from the regime on LGBT issues.
🇬🇧 The UK looks set to finally dump the Tories this week after 14 terrible years. Labour looks set for a historic majority, but it’s not clear if they’re interested in delivering much for the LGBT community amid fault lines over trans rights. They’ve promised to introduce a ban on conversion therapy and a simplified gender recognition scheme that still requires a medical diagnosis and would still exclude trans people from certain single-sex spaces. It’s also possible, but unlikely, that a Labour government would impose same-sex marriage or civil unions upon the holdout overseas territories (Cayman Islands, Virgin Islands, Turks and Caicos, Montserrat, Anguilla and Bermuda), in order to comply with the European Convention on Human Rights.
🇮🇱 There is a lot of talk in Israel about possible upcoming elections, and right now, the left-leaning opposition is leading opinion polls. If they were able to clinch government, it would put the possibility of legalizing same-sex marriage within reach – although this is all super hypothetical, and any new government will likely have its hands full with other immediate priorities.
This year’s US elections look to be incredibly consequential. It’s critical for LGBT rights in America that Democrats hold the White House and at least one house of congress, but advances are only likely if they manage to win all three.
Democrats are also tracking to make gains in state-level elections. They have a good chance of winning control of one or both legislatures in New Hampshire, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Alaska, and Wisconsin, and they’re also hoping to make at least some gains in other red states. Winning control of any of these states is critical for advancing basic equality and stemming the tide of anti-LGBT laws coming from Republican states. Michigan and Minnesota are instructive – key priorities will be anti-discrimination laws, rolling back anti-trans laws, codifying marriage rights, and banning conversion therapy and the gay panic defense.
In Latvia, the Civil Union Law allowing same-sex couples the ability to register their unions at notary offices nationwide went into effect on 1 July 2024.